Here’s your trade on Nvidia ($NVDA).  We’ve got a monster trade going, with an R-Multiple of 3.3.  I explain…. – April 27, 2026

by MarketMentor

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Read the transcript HERE

Key Takeaways

  • Chart Truth vs. Bearish Noise: Bearish articles are “repetitively wrong.” As long as the low of the day is higher than the previous low, the chart is objectively bullish regardless of sentiment.

  • The Nature of Tops: You can only be right about a market top one time. Every other time you try to call a top, you are likely just identifying a temporary pause in a larger uptrend.

  • NVIDIA’s Moat is Software, not just Hardware: The “Reverse Lobster Trap” is NVIDIA’s CUDA software. Once a company is “all-in” on NVIDIA’s software environment, the cost of switching processors becomes economically unviable.

  • Amateurs vs. Professionals: Amateurs measure percentage gains; professionals measure Risk (R). Focusing on dollars at risk is the only way to consistently bump your gains and protect your “pot” of capital.

The “Nosebleed” Rally—Why We Aren’t Picking Tops

The Repetitive Error of the Bears

If you’ve been reading the financial news lately, you’ve seen the same headline a dozen times: “Semiconductors are overextended; the bubble is about to burst.” Meanwhile, the SMH and NVIDIA continue to print new all-time highs. As Dan Fitzpatrick explains, the “bears” are making a fundamental error—they are trying to be “right” rather than trying to make money. In technical trading, we don’t care how long a run has lasted; we only care about the Arbiter of Truth: the price action.

The “Reverse Lobster Trap”

Why does NVIDIA continue to defy gravity? It isn’t just about making the fastest chips; it’s about the CUDA software ecosystem. Dan calls this the “Reverse Lobster Trap.” Once a massive corporation or a small nation (given NVIDIA’s $6 trillion valuation) integrates its data management with NVIDIA’s software, the cost of switching to a competitor is “bazillions” of dollars in man-hours. You don’t change horses in the middle of a stream—and NVIDIA is the only horse that knows the way across.

The “R” in Professionalism

The biggest shift a trader can make is moving from counting “percentages” to counting “R” (Risk Multiples). Most amateurs get excited about a 20% gain, but if they risked 20% to get it, they haven’t actually built a sustainable business. On our active trade list, we are eyeing Orca at a 20R return—that’s $20 made for every $1 risked. That is the “means to an end” that separates the pros from the “knuckleheads” chasing falling knives.

Don’t Take the “Steve Miller” Trade

It’s tempting to close a winner just to “feel safe” in cash. But if you have a stock that is already proving you right, why would you trade it for a 50-50 chance in a new, unproven position? As long as NVIDIA stays above its key moving averages and continues to uncoil from its current “volatility squeeze,” our target remains $250.

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